The “strong cycle” did not come, and the first launch of the iPhone 16 series was cold

 The iPhone 16 series is officially on sale today.

As Apple’s first mobile phone equipped with Apple Intelligence, and coinciding with the replacement cycle of the once best-selling iPhone 12 and iPhone 13 series, many institutions expect that the sales of the iPhone 16 series will far exceed the iPhone 15 series, ushering in a “strong cycle.”

But for now, sales of the iPhone 16 series seem to be below expectations.

Cailianshe reporters visited and learned that the popularity of second-hand recycling of this year’s first iPhone is much lower than in previous years. A second-hand dealer lamented to the Cailianshe reporter helplessly that “business is not good, and the market this year is not as good as last year.”

In addition, Tianfeng International analyst Ming-Chi Kuo recently stated that the pre-sale sales of the iPhone 16 series decreased by 12.7% compared with the 15 series.

At present, the consumer electronics market is far from recovering. Apple has been slow to launch new features that can “amaze” consumers, while other consumer electronics brands such as Huawei and Xiaomi are aggressively launching best-selling products. Faced with “wolves in front and tigers behind”, can Apple still maintain its consistent dominance in the mobile phone market?

At around 10 am today, a reporter from Cailianshe found that there were still many people trying out the products at the Apple store in Shenzhen Yitian Holiday Plaza, and there was also a long queue to pick up the products on site.

The store clerk told the reporter that currently, iPhone 16 and 16 Plus are in stock in the store and can be picked up after placing an order; Pro and Pro Max need to be pre-ordered and the pickup time may have to wait until October. Cailianshe reporters browsed Apple’s official website and found that currently it takes about 10 days to wait for Pro orders, and 2-3 weeks to wait for Pro Max orders.

Compared with previous years, the popularity of iPhone 16 seems to have decreased. On the day when the iPhone 15 series was first released, a reporter from Cailianshe learned at the Apple Direct Store in Yitian Holiday Plaza that the entire 15 series was out of stock. If you pre-order on Apple’s official website, you have to wait for about a week for the basic model, while the waiting time for Pro Max is nearly two months.

The decline in popularity is also reflected in the prices of second-hand goods.

In previous years, the Pro and Pro Max series could almost always be sold at second-hand recycling centers for a price of more than 500 yuan on the day of their launch, and popular models could even be sold for more than 1,000 yuan.

At around 11 o’clock today, many second-hand dealers at the scene said that they had refused to accept multiple models including iPhone 16, iPhone 16 plus and iPhone 16 Pro. Only Pro Max gold 256G could be accepted with an additional price of about 400. “Business is not good. Pro has broken the issue price. This year’s market is not as good as last year.” A “scalper” said.

In fact, well-known Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo had already issued a warning on the 18th. He wrote that the pre-order sales of the iPhone 16 series in the first weekend were estimated to be about 37 million units, a year-on-year decrease of about 12.7% compared with the first weekend sales of the iPhone 15 series last year. The key is that the iPhone 16 Pro series is lower than expected.

Liu Yushi, a senior analyst at CINNO Research, believes that there are three main reasons why the iPhone 16 series’ current sales are lower than expected. “First, there is a lack of innovation. Compared with the previous generation, the overall parameters and software have been limited, and some key technical functions have not been fulfilled. The AI ​​function supported by the iPhone 16 has not been fully implemented, and it will take 2025 for China to use it, which has an adverse impact on the first launch.”

It is understood that Apple Smart will begin testing the US English version in October and launch it in Australia, the UK, Canada, New Zealand, South Africa and other regions in December; Chinese, French, Japanese and Spanish will be launched next year, but the specific time has not been determined. Currently, iPhone models purchased in mainland China cannot use Apple Smart.

Secondly, Liu Yushi believes that changes in the market environment are also an important reason. “Major competitors have obvious first-mover advantages in AI and other functions, and continue to make efforts in technological innovation, which has brought great competitive pressure to Apple.”

At present, many mobile phone brands such as Huawei, OPPO, and Vivo have launched models equipped with large models. From the perspective of AI functions, Apple’s smartphones are similar to those of other manufacturers and have failed to achieve a “stunning” effect.

Third, Liu Yushi said, “With the global economic situation not optimistic, consumers are more cautious about buying high-priced goods.”

Currently, the consumer electronics industry is still in a slow recovery phase. The latest forecast from Counterpoint Research shows that by 2024, global smartphone shipments will reach 1.23 billion units, a year-on-year increase of 5%. Despite the increase over the previous year, there is still a large gap from the 1.39 billion units in 2021.

“In the case of Apple’s poor sales, its main competitors will take the opportunity to use their first-mover advantages in areas such as AI and folding to seek a higher market share and enhance their voice in the high-end market,” said Liu Yushi.

Today, in addition to the debut of Apple’s 16 series, Huawei’s tri-fold mobile phone HUAWEI Mate XT Extraordinary Master was also officially launched.

After the rush to buy started, all models of Mate XT were sold out in an instant. Currently, they are out of stock on the official website and the purchase page shows “in queue”.

However, a reporter from Cailianshe visited Huawei’s flagship store in Shenzhen Mixc World and found that not many people were experiencing the store. The staff said, “We don’t support reservations. We are only here to learn about the products.”

In terms of the supply chain, there are few changes in the main suppliers of iPhone 16, and the biggest changes occur in the foundry structure.

A reporter from Cailianshe learned from industry insiders that the Pro series OEM orders, which were mainly undertaken by Foxconn in previous years, will be undertaken more by Luxshare Precision (002475.SZ) this year .

In addition, Cailianshe reporters learned from the supply chain that Lens Technology (300433.SZ) is responsible for the front and rear glass cover plates, camera protection cover plates, metal middle frame + side keys, back cover assembly, and side key sapphire supply of the iPhone 16. Guo Mingchi’s earlier research report also pointed out that Goertek (002241.SZ) served as a microphone supplier as in previous years.

Under the pressure of “wolves in front and tigers behind”, Apple is under increasing pressure, and it is difficult for the “Apple supply chain” to “win without effort” as in previous years. In previous years, the “Apple supply chain” often ushered in hot speculation in the secondary market during the release of Apple mobile phones. But this year, the Apple supply chain has not been boosted.

“For upstream ‘Apple chain’ manufacturers, it is very necessary to find new growth points and transformation directions, especially in the face of challenges such as reduced Apple orders and intensified market competition.

At present, the transformation direction of Apple supply chain enterprises is mainly reflected in new energy vehicles and smart cockpits, XR and other consumer electronics fields, as well as other smartphone brand customers. “Liu Yushi said.

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